
By Scott Grates
I want to share a story with you from when I first opened my insurance agency. We were in a great spot—super competitive in the market.
To be honest, it felt like pure luck. We were writing business left and right, and I thought it was never going to end. I figured we’d keep winning one out of every three quotes forever.
At the time, there was another agent in town, Fred. He worked for a big company, and they were struggling with their rates. We were taking so much of his business, I was sending out a week’s worth of cancellations at a time, all stuffed in one envelope to save money.
The Call from Fred
One day, Fred called me. I’d only been in business for about six months, and I wasn’t sure what he wanted.
He told me, in a kind and professional way, “Scott, this industry is like a pendulum. Right now, it’s swinging your way, but eventually, it’ll swing back my way. I’ve been in this business long enough to know that it’s cyclical.”
Honestly, at the time, I thought Fred was being a little arrogant. I hung up and said a few things under my breath. I didn’t take his words seriously.
But now, 16 years later, I owe Fred an apology.
Because he was right.
Recency Bias: When the Present Feels Permanent
What I was experiencing back then is something called recency bias.
Recency bias makes us think that whatever is happening right now—whether it’s good or bad—is going to last forever. It makes us forget the bigger picture.
In Fred’s case, he knew that rates go up and down, but I was too caught up in the moment, at that time, to see it.
Right now, many businesses, including mine, are facing challenges. We’re struggling with rates, technology issues, and claims. But, like Fred said all those years ago, this business is cyclical. Things will get better. And just like the good times didn’t last forever, neither will the bad times.
The Rollercoaster of Life
Here’s an exercise for you.
On a blank piece of paper draw a horizontal line and label the ends with the year you were born on one end and the present year on the other. Then, think about the biggest moments in your life—the highest highs and the lowest lows. Mark those moments on your timeline.
When I did this, I noticed a pattern: life is like a rollercoaster, full of ups and downs.
At the time, I thought the good moments would last forever, and I thought the bad ones would, too. But both eventually passed. Life kept moving.
Staying Present: 5 Ways to Beat Recency Bias
All of our stress and anxiety come from worrying about the past or fearing the future. But if we can learn to stay in the present moment, we’ll realize that nothing lasts forever—not the good, and not the bad.
Here are five ways to help you stay present and beat recency bias:
- Daily Reflection
Take a few minutes each day to journal. Write down the good things that happened, even if they’re small. - Meditation
Focus on your breath. When thoughts come into your head, acknowledge them, but let them go. Bring your focus back to the present moment. - Negative Visualization
Think about the worst-case scenario. Chances are, it won’t happen, and even if it does, it won’t be as bad as you think. - Seek Wisdom
Talk to people who’ve been through what you’re going through. They have the experience and insight to remind you that nothing lasts forever. - Understand Impermanence
Remember, everything is temporary. The good times and the bad times will both pass. The key is to stay present and do your best with what’s in front of you right now.
The Pendulum Always Swings
The truth is, life—and business—is like a pendulum. It swings back and forth. The key to success is knowing that the highs won’t last forever, but neither will the lows. Stay present, focus on what you can control, and know that better days are always ahead.
So keep moving forward, knowing that everything, the bad (and even the good), will eventually pass.